Ever since we were told that the ZA economy shrank by 0.6% in the first quarter of this year, there has been a fear that the current, second quarter will also show negative growth. If it does, we will be in a recession. It will be a few months before we get the official Q2 figure, so at the moment we cannot be sure about this. But what do expert economists think? For our first ever poll, ZA Confidential spoke at the end of the week to more than a dozen leading economists to get their views. Most of them responded, and I have tried to accurately capture their views. Here is what they think….
Are we already in a recession?
Mike Schussler, economists.co.za
Iraj Abedian., Pan-Africa.
Christo Luus, EcoQuant
Chris Hart, Investment Solutions
Ian Cruickshanks, SAIRR
Peter Attard Montalto from Nomura
Sizwe Nxedlana, FNB
Professor Eltie Links
Roger Baxter, Chamber of Mines
Luke Doig, Credit Guarantee
Dawie Roodt, Efficient Group.
Loane Sharp, Adcorp
Prof Raymond Parsons, NW University.
Well. Quite a range of views. Five of our panel of thirteen believe the recession has landed, while four believe we will escape a recession. Meanwhile, the other four are still not sure. There is still hope that the economy will edge forward this quarter, but even so this is not wildly encouraging, with only four of those polled saying there will be no recession. And even if there is some growth in Q2, it is not going to be very impressive, and is unlikely to help us much to deal with the army of unemployed.
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