On the back of yesterday’s 1.4% number for ZA’s third quarter GDP growth, ZA Confidential approached a cluster of our top economists to get their views on the outlook for the rest of this year, and for next. The numbers make depressing reading. We need growth of 5% to 6% a year to make at least some dent in the current horrible unemployment problem – which Investment Solutions has identified as South Africa’s new National Scar. No one in our team of 14 top economists believes we will come close to this in 2014 or 2015. And if Eskom continues to apply the brakes to the economy, we will have a very rocky – and a rather dark – ride. For 2014, estimates for GDP growth for the full year range from 1% to 1.6% – a feeble performance. For next year, a slight lift is expected, with our economists predicting annual growth for 2015 to range between 1.4 and 2.6%, once again a poor show.
Expert 2014 GDP (%) 2015 GDP (%)
Dawie Roodt of the Efficient Group 1.3 1.6
Azar Jammine of Econometrix 1.4 2.5
Ian Cruickshanks of the SAIRR 1.25 1.5
Prof Raymond Parsons of NW University 1.5 2.5
Iraj Abedian of Pan African 1.2 1.4
Dennis Dykes of Nedbank 1.4 2.5
Ettienne le Roux of RMB 1.3 2.4
Sizwe Nxedlana of FNB 1.5 2.3
Annabel Bishop of Investec 1.5 2.5
Craig Pheiffer of Absa 1.4 2.6
Professor Eltie Links 1.4 1.9
Luke Doig of Credit Guarantee 1.3 2.0
Peter Attard Montalto of Nomura 1.6 2.5
Mike Schussler……………………………….1.0………………….. 2.2
This economy is limping along, and without a few economic miracles the misery of low growth and high unemployment will continue to plague us.
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